Mundane cycles

Outer-planet cycles, sign ingresses, eclipses and national charts, laid against world events and market history. Positions are computed (VSOP87, geocentric, tropical zodiac); the interpretation layer is astrology’s, and the market section tests whether the cycles show up in the numbers at all.

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Now and next

Next 24 months

Next 24 months

Global mundane timeline

Top: the cyclic index (sum of the ten separations between Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto; low = clustered) with S&P 500 bear markets shaded and reference world events marked. Then the Oceanic Niño Index (ERSSTv6, centred three-month means from 1950, so it lags the live ocean by about six weeks), with the Relative ONI as a dashed line: Niño 3.4 minus the average of the whole tropics, which strips out background warming. Where the two lines part, part of the ONI is the warmer tropics rather than the event itself. Below: every exact aspect between each outer-planet pair, every sign ingress and every eclipse. Hover for detail.

from to

National charts

Founding dates are historical facts; founding times are conventions, and several are disputed. Each chart carries a rating — A documented time, B well-attested, C disputed, X no time (noon chart). The Moon and the angles are used for transit timing only on A and B charts, because a one-hour error moves the Ascendant by about 15°.

Positions

Positions

Outer-planet transits

Outer-planet transits

Transit timeline, 2015–2035

Economic and market cycles

S&P 500 monthly averages since 1900 (Shiller data; inflation-adjusted to Sep 2023, nominal thereafter) on a log scale, with the cyclic index. Shaded: bear markets (red) and Saturn–Uranus hard-aspect windows (blue). The tests below ask whether forward 12-month real returns differ when a cycle is in a given state.

Planetary cycles vs forward 12-month real returns, 1900–2022

Planetary cycles vs forward 12-month real returns, 1900–2022

Δ mean = average forward return inside the window minus outside, in percentage points. p from 5,000 circular shifts of the predictor (keeps both series’ persistence); q = Benjamini–Hochberg across all seven tests.

Strongest lead, episode by episode

Strongest lead, episode by episode

“Gap if dropped” recomputes the in-minus-out difference without that episode. If one row moves it a lot, one event carries the result.

Method and sources

Computation. Positions from PyEphem (VSOP87 planetary theory), apparent geocentric longitudes of date, tropical zodiac. Exact aspect and ingress times are found by root-finding to under a minute. Checked against published values: the Jupiter–Saturn conjunction of 21 Dec 2020 (18:20 UTC, 0°30′ Aquarius), Pluto’s Aquarius ingresses of 2023–24, the Saturn–Neptune conjunction of 20 Feb 2026, the 2024–26 equinox times to the minute, all 17 eclipses of 2024–2027, and the Sibly USA and 1947 India charts. Eclipses are flagged by the Moon’s latitude at new or full moon (any type, including partial and penumbral); total/annular is not computed. Mean lunar node. Cross-check any single date against JPL Horizons or astro.com.

National charts. Dates, places and times as used in the mundane literature (Campion, The Book of World Horoscopes, and the national-chart collections at astro.com, astrologyking.com and starsutra.in). Ratings are this site’s own judgement of how well the time is documented.

World events. A hand-picked list for orientation. Because it was chosen after the fact, it cannot test anything — any hand-picked list will appear to line up with some cycle. The market tests use the whole monthly record instead.

Interpretive sources (not used for computation):

Market data. datasets/s-and-p-500 (Robert Shiller’s monthly series). Monthly averages smooth out intramonth extremes, so bear-market depths here are shallower than daily-close figures.

Code: tools/mundane/ in the site repository; rebuilt with the weekly refresh. Not financial advice.