Claim vs evidence
Claims vs evidence
Each card takes one claim that is circulating, splits it into single statements, and rates every statement against a named source, with the date the source was read and a link to it. Observations, forecasts as issued and what is not known are kept apart. Where a card makes a testable prediction, the tests are fixed before the outcome and the result is added afterwards. Ratings describe statements, not people.
Cards
Polar vortex, early November 2026: what is forecast and what would count
As of 30 October 2026, forecasts show the polar vortex above the Arctic weakening in early November, but not clearly reversing. Most forecasts do not show its winds fully reversing, and the official outlooks for 4-12 November favor above-normal temperatures across most of the United States, not a freeze. A confirmed 'sudden stratospheric warming' needs the winds to reverse, and any effect at the surface would take weeks. The tests below were fixed on 30 October, before the outcome.
LiveUpdated 2026-10-30'95% chance the AMOC collapses': what the number means
No study we read says there is a 95 percent chance that the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC) collapses before 2100. The widely repeated '95%' is the width of an uncertainty interval around an estimated collapse year in one 2023 paper, which was corrected in 2025 (current text: central estimate 2065, interval 2037-2109). The IPCC has medium confidence that an abrupt collapse will not happen before 2100, while weakening is very likely. Direct measurements at 26 N show strong variability and a decline since about 2010; they are not a forecast.